Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 November 2023

Market Insights 22/11/2023


The market continues to show a bit of a yo-yo effect as yesterdays session undoes much of the gains seen on Monday.

We now start to see a slow reduction of EU gas storage levels, indicating net withdrawals are now a daily factor. This is usual for this time of year and storage levels still show considerably above previous years.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.07 (from €45.82) and the NBP Front Month contract at 111.82p (from 116.27p).

Kollsnes remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 354mcm from Norway (353). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.88% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €45, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €45, Front Season €45 (vs €44 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 112p, Front Season 113p (vs 116p and 117p)
UK Gas NBP spot 111p (from 117p)
UK Power DA £97 (from £105)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £97 (£99) and Front Season at £99 (£101).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($82) and EUAs are at €75 (€77). Henry Hub is at $2.85 ($2.88) and JKM is at $16.47 ($17.13) with TTF Equiv of $14.70 ($14.70).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.