Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 November 2023

Market Insights 21/11/2023


A small bounce to start the week, particularly on the front month contracts.

The latest temperature forecasts show a dip later this week, where temperatures could stay below seasonal normal for the end of November and first week of December before staying close to seasonal normal for the remainder of the year.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €45.82 (from €45.06) and the NBP Front Month contract at 116.27p (from 113.74p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 353mcm from Norway (353). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (37.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.5). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.00% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €46 (vs €46 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 116p, Front Season 117p (vs 114p and 116p)
UK Gas NBP spot 117p (from 108p)
UK Power DA £105 (from £95)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £99 (£96) and Front Season at £101 (£99).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($81) and EUAs are at €77 (€77). Henry Hub is at $2.88 ($2.96) and JKM is at $17.13 ($16.98) with TTF Equiv of $14.70 ($14.37).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.