Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 November 2023

Market Insights 20/11/2023


A soft end to the week seen in Fridays session as markets continue to show some confidence.

A slight dip in LNG arrivals and a Norwegian unplanned outage may allow prices to revert slightly and maintain its recent range, however overall fundamentals remain unchanged.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €45.06 (from €45.85) and the NBP Front Month contract at 113.74p (from 115.47p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 353mcm from Norway (339). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.5mcm (40.0) and Sudzha at 40.5mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.94% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €45 (vs €45 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 114p, Front Season 116p (vs 115p and 117p)
UK Gas NBP spot 108p (from 102p)
UK Power DA £95 (from £110)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£97) and Front Season at £99 (£100).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($77) and EUAs are at €77 (€77). Henry Hub is at $2.96 ($3.06) and JKM is at $16.98 ($17.10) with TTF Equiv of $14.37 ($14.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.