Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 November 2023

Market Insights 15/11/2023


An uneventful session yesterday with prices staying level to the previous day across the board.

We are seeing small decreases in EU gas storage levels, but levels remain touching 100%. LNG deliveries continue to line up for the weeks ahead and the temperature outlooks remain to stay close to seasonal normal. It seems that, barring any change to this outlook, the fundamentals look good for the first half of winter.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.61 (from €47.87) and the NBP Front Month contract at 119.11p (from 119.66p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm from Norway (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.42% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €49, Front Season €48 (vs €47 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 119p, Front Season 120p (vs 120p and 120p)
UK Gas NBP spot 103p (from 94p)
UK Power DA £85 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£98) and Front Season at £102 (£100).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($83) and EUAs are at €79 (€77). Henry Hub is at $3.11 ($3.20) and JKM is at $17.13 ($17.20) with TTF Equiv of $15.16 ($15.02).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.