Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 November 2023

Market Insights 14/11/2023


A slight uptick to start the week off in yesterdays session as fundamentals hold steady and we continue to trade within the current envelope as a result.

The latest long term weather runs continue to show the rest of 2023 to be at or just below seasonal normal temperatures.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.87 (from €46.63) and the NBP Front Month contract at 119.66p (from 117.77p).

Gullfaks and Oseberg on  unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 338mcm from Norway (327). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (34.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.5). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.49% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €48 (vs €48 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 120p, Front Season 120p (vs 118p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 94p (from 94p)
UK Power DA £83 (from £82)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£99) and Front Season at £100 (£100).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($81) and EUAs are at €77 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.20 ($3.03) and JKM is at $17.20 ($17.19) with TTF Equiv of $15.02 ($14.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.