Market Insight
Tony Jordan
7 November 2023

Market Insights 07/11/2023


A soft session yesterday saw a decent decline in the near term contracts as fundamentals remain strong with 100% gas storage, plenty of LNG en route and cold temperatures not yet in sight.

This, alongside healthy production levels, put the market in confident mode and the market to the downside in yesterdays session.

The latest long term temperature forecasts show little change to the end of last week, with just below seasonal normal to be expected until late December.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.83 (from €48.06) and the NBP Front Month contract at 113.66p (from 122.55p).

Kollsnes remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 331mcm from Norway (332). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.5mcm (34.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.63% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €46 (vs €45 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 114p, Front Season 114p (vs 123p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 100p)
UK Power DA £86 (from £95)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £95 (£103) and Front Season at £97 (£98).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($85) and EUAs are at €76 (€78). Henry Hub is at $3.26 ($3.52) and JKM is at $17.45 ($17.57) with TTF Equiv of $14.13 ($15.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.