Market Insight
Tony Jordan
6 November 2023

Market Insights 06/11/2023


A level day to end the week with not much movement to the previous days settlement seen on Friday.

EU gas storage levels are now within touching distance of recording 100% and will soon start to decline as withdrawals are likely to commence as the temperatures start to drop after a warm start to the winter period.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.06 (from €48.56) and the NBP Front Month contract at 122.55p (from 124.47p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm from Norway (313). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 34.9mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 40.0mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.55% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €49 (vs €48 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 123p, Front Season 123p (vs 124p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 108p)
UK Power DA £95 (from £69)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£98) and Front Season at £98 (£98).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($87) and EUAs are at €78 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.52 ($3.47) and JKM is at $17.57 ($17.65) with TTF Equiv of $15.14 ($15.12).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.