Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 November 2023

Market Insights 03/11/2023


A slight uptick seen in yesterdays session, undoing much of the previous day, and keeping us level for now.

The latest long term temperature runs continue to show just below seasonal norms to be expected throughout November and into the first half of December.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.56 (from €47.76) and the NBP Front Month contract at 124.47p (from 122.31p).

Aasta Hansteen and Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 313mcm from Norway (333). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (34.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.41% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €49, Front Season €49 (vs €49 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 124p, Front Season 123p (vs 122p and 121p)
UK Gas NBP spot 108p (from 84p)
UK Power DA £69 (from £69)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£102) and Front Season at £98 (£100).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($85) and EUAs are at €79 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.47 ($3.49) and JKM is at $17.65 ($17.66) with TTF Equiv of $15.12 ($14.76).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.