Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 November 2023

Market Insights 01/11/2023


Welcome along to November.

As the closeout of October, and Halloween, arrived something spooked the bulls away from the market as we saw an impressive drop in market levels during yesterdays session.

Looking ahead we see an uptick in expected LNG, over 99% storage levels across the EU and temperatures still holding close to seasonal normal for the foreseeable future. This all bodes well to boost some confidence in to the market in the midst of the wider geopolitical issues that are keeping some risk premium cemented into the levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.01 (from €53.03) and the NBP Front Month contract at 124.07p (from 137.99p).

Nyhamna remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 316mcm from Norway (323). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.24% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €48 (vs €48 and €55)
Curve NBP Front Month 124p, Front Season 122p (vs 138p and 145p)
UK Gas NBP spot 108p (from 127p)
UK Power DA £80 (from £107)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £98 (£102) and Front Season at £100 (£108).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($87) and EUAs are at €79 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.58 ($3.35) and JKM is at $17.72 ($17.91) with TTF Equiv of $14.88 ($16.52).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.