Market Insight
Tony Jordan
31 October 2023

Market Insights 31/10/2023


A bit of a yo-yo session seen yesterday which can often be the case as we close front month contracts.

Markets were up early on, later retracting only to end as they started as news relating to Egypts LNG exports, none of which currently appear bound for Europe, may be impacted by a reduction in gas imports affected by the conflict in Israel. As we’ve seen previously, the LNG market is very much a global one and negative news can and will impact markets everywhere.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €50.53 (from €50.53) and the NBP Front Month contract at 125.78p (from 125.78p).

Karsto and Nyhamna on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 323mcm from Norway (312). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (38.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 99.25% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €51, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €51, Front Season €55 (vs €53 and €53)
Curve NBP Front Month 138p, Front Season 145p (vs 126p and 133p)
UK Gas NBP spot 127p (from 131p)
UK Power DA £107 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £102 (£104) and Front Season at £108 (£111).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($90) and EUAs are at €79 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.35 ($3.48) and JKM is at $17.91 ($17.90) with TTF Equiv of $16.52 ($15.69).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.