Market Insight
Tony Jordan
30 October 2023

Market Insights 30/10/2023


A calm end to the week as Friday saw another level session compared to the previous day.

Estonia has said that it believes the three Baltic pipe and cable incidents are likely connected. This comes after Finland recently named a vessel that it believes caused the damage. It is now being assessed as to whether this was a freak accident or if intent was present. The gas pipeline will be out of action for the winter period and Finland has raised its risk assessment for gas supply to two (out of three), but has said it does not need to interfere in the markets.

On Friday it was announced Tony Jordan has been shortlisted as Industry Expert at the upcoming Energy Live News TELCA Awards with the result announced on 6th December. Good luck to all award nominees.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €50.53 (from €50.81) and the NBP Front Month contract at 125.78p (from 126.12p).

Karsto and Nyhamna on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 312mcm from Norway (316). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.6mcm (39.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.87% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €53, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €53, Front Season €53 (vs €51 and €53)
Curve NBP Front Month 126p, Front Season 133p (vs 126p and 133p)
UK Gas NBP spot 131p (from 119p)
UK Power DA £92 (from £105)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £104 (£103) and Front Season at £111 (£111).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $90 ($88) and EUAs are at €79 (€80). Henry Hub is at $3.48 ($3.21) and JKM is at $17.90 ($17.91) with TTF Equiv of $15.69 ($15.68).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.