Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 October 2023

Market Insights 27/10/2023


A fairly level session once again as the gas market holds stable close to €50-55 on the TTF and 125-135p on the NBP respectively along the curve.

No change to the current temperature outlook, which continues to show a seasonal normal end of October and just below seasonal normal throughout November into early December.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €50.81 (from €49.92) and the NBP Front Month contract at 126.12p (from 124.21p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 316mcm from Norway (315). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.1mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.71% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €51, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €51, Front Season €53 (vs €51 and €52)
Curve NBP Front Month 126p, Front Season 133p (vs 124p and 133p)
UK Gas NBP spot 119p (from 119p)
UK Power DA £105 (from £110)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£105) and Front Season at £111 (£112).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $88 ($90) and EUAs are at €80 (€80). Henry Hub is at $3.21 ($3.01) and JKM is at $17.91 ($17.96) with TTF Equiv of $15.68 ($15.50).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.