Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 October 2023

Market Insights 25/10/2023


A slow start to the day but a bearish session come the end.

An anchor was found near to the damaged area of the Balticonnector pipeline and Finland have stated they believe this to belongs to a Chinese registered vessel in the area at the time of the incident. Investigations continue as to whether there was any deliberate act, or if it was accidental, as it is believed the damage is manageable to be repaired.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €49.26 (from €51.28) and the NBP Front Month contract at 122.15p (from 126.75p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 302mcm from Norway (312). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.7mcm (37.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.63% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €49, Front Season €53 (vs €49 and €55)
Curve NBP Front Month 122p, Front Season 135p (vs 127p and 142p)
UK Gas NBP spot 119p (from 130p)
UK Power DA £114 (from £103)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £103 (£108) and Front Season at £113 (£119).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $88 ($90) and EUAs are at €81 (€81). Henry Hub is at $2.97 ($2.93) and JKM is at $17.84 ($18.59) with TTF Equiv of $15.29 ($16.00).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.