Market Insight
Tony Jordan
24 October 2023

Market Insights 24/10/2023


A flat end to the first session of the week after showing some bearish promise at the start of the day.

EU gas storage levels continue to squeeze towards 100%.

The latest long term weather runs show a seasonal normal end to October before dipping just below seasonal normal throughout November and into early December.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €51.28 (from €51.11) and the NBP Front Month contract at 126.75p (from 126.19p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 312mcm from Norway (306). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.7mcm (37.0) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (41.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.59% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €50, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €50, Front Season €55 (vs €51 and €55)
Curve NBP Front Month 127p, Front Season 142p (vs 126p and 142p)
UK Gas NBP spot 130p (from 103p)
UK Power DA £103 (from £109)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £108 (£109) and Front Season at £119 (£116).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $90 ($92) and EUAs are at €81 (€81). Henry Hub is at $2.93 ($2.90) and JKM is at $18.59 ($18.40) with TTF Equiv of $16.00 ($15.87).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.