Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 October 2023

Market Insights 20/10/2023


A fairly flat session in the end yesterday as we still see strong supply levels with an undertone of fear around global events keeping the market on edge.

The latest long term weather runs show temperatures just below seasonal normal throughout November.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €50.17 (from €50.83) and the NBP Front Month contract at 123.63p (from 125.83p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 313mcm from Norway (294). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.8mcm (37.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.14% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €52, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €52, Front Season €55 (vs €50 and €55)
Curve NBP Front Month 124p, Front Season 140p (vs 126p and 140p)
UK Gas NBP spot 103p (from 114p)
UK Power DA £73 (from £74)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £108 (£112) and Front Season at £116 (£119).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $92 ($92) and EUAs are at €82 (€82). Henry Hub is at $2.96 ($3.06) and JKM is at $18.25 ($18.29) with TTF Equiv of $15.55 ($15.70).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.