Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 October 2023

Market Insights 19/10/2023


Another bullish session seen yesterday as tensions continue to mount in the Middle East.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €50.83 (from €48.90) and the NBP Front Month contract at 125.83p (from 122.03p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 294mcm from Norway (319). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.7mcm (38.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 98.12% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €50, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €50, Front Season €55 (vs €51 and €53)
Curve NBP Front Month 126p, Front Season 140p (vs 122p and 134p)
UK Gas NBP spot 114p (from 105p)
UK Power DA £74 (from £65)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £112 (£110) and Front Season at £119 (£116).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $92 ($90) and EUAs are at €82 (€83). Henry Hub is at $3.06 ($3.08) and JKM is at $18.29 ($17.65) with TTF Equiv of $15.70 ($15.19).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.