Market Insight
Tony Jordan
18 October 2023

Market Insights 18/10/2023


A level end after a mixed session yesterday after showing a small upward start, before ending the day up slightly on the previous day.

This level may be the new envelope range whilst developments around the Australian strike action, escalation in Israel and Gaza and concerns around energy infrastructure security.

Finland have stated that whilst there seems to be a clear external force that has caused the damage to the Balticonnector pipeline, they will not make any accusations as to how or who caused it until all of the evidence has been gathered and properly investigated.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.90 (from €48.47) and the NBP Front Month contract at 122.03p (from 121.17p).

Aasta Hansteen and Dvalin on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 319mcm from Norway (329). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.7mcm (37.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.98% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €48, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €53 (vs €49 and €52)
Curve NBP Front Month 122p, Front Season 134p (vs 121p and 138p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 114p)
UK Power DA £65 (from £112)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £110 (£111) and Front Season at £116 (£120).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $90 ($90) and EUAs are at €83 (€83). Henry Hub is at $3.08 ($3.11) and JKM is at $17.65 ($17.72) with TTF Equiv of $15.19 ($14.99).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.