Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 October 2023

Market Insights 17/10/2023


A bearish session to start the week as some of the fear is removed from markets upon realisation that underlying fundamentals are healthy, and perhaps some position closing and profit taking.

Warmer temperatures are expected in the coming days, before they are forecast to dip just below or close to seasonal normal until late November.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €48.47 (from €53.98) and the NBP Front Month contract at 121.17p (from 136.70p).

Karsto and Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 329mcm from Norway (329). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.6mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.95% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €49, Front Season €52 (vs €52 and €55)
Curve NBP Front Month 121p, Front Season 133p (vs 137p and 141p)
UK Gas NBP spot 114p (from 131p)
UK Power DA £112 (from £131)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £111 (£124) and Front Season at £120 (£123).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $90 ($91) and EUAs are at €83 (€86). Henry Hub is at $3.11 ($3.24) and JKM is at $17.72 ($18.29) with TTF Equiv of $14.99 ($16.63).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.