Market Insight
Tony Jordan
16 October 2023

Market Insights 16/10/2023


A bullish session ended the week on Friday as colder temperatures landed, alongside continued fears relating to wider global issues including the Australian LNG strikes, escalation between Israel and Gaza and of course now a generic fear over the safety of energy infrastructure.

The cold temperatures can be felt (and frost seen!) this morning which is expected to pass by the end of the week and seasonal normal temperatures be maintained for the foreseeable future.

EU gas storage injections continue to push to almost 98%, incredible levels.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €53.98 (from €53.00) and the NBP Front Month contract at 136.70p (from 133.96p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 329mcm from Norway (324). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.89% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €52, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €52, Front Season €55 (vs €54 and €54)
Curve NBP Front Month 137p, Front Season 141p (vs 134p and 137p)
UK Gas NBP spot 131p (from 125p)
UK Power DA £131 (from £76)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £124 (£121) and Front Season at £123 (£120).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $91 ($86) and EUAs are at €86 (€85). Henry Hub is at $3.24 ($3.34) and JKM is at $18.29 ($14.36) with TTF Equiv of $16.63 ($16.40).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.