Market Insight
Tony Jordan
13 October 2023

Market Insights 13/10/2023


A bullish session seen on Thursday, despite underlying supply fundamentals looking healthy, as the market considers the fear of further infrastructure attacks.

Alongside some colder weather for the coming days, attacks on Nord Stream AG last September and more recently a potentially similar fate for the Balticonnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia, has injected new fears into the European markets … can or will this happen again?

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €53.00 (from €46.07) and the NBP Front Month contract at 133.96p (from 116.62p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 324mcm from Norway (327). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.34% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €54, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €54, Front Season €54 (vs €53 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 134p, Front Season 137p (vs 117p and 125p)
UK Gas NBP spot 125p (from 112p)
UK Power DA £76 (from £110)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £121 (£108) and Front Season at £120 (£112).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($86) and EUAs are at €85 (€84). Henry Hub is at $3.34 ($3.38) and JKM is at $14.36 ($14.31) with TTF Equiv of $16.40 ($14.35).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.