Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 October 2023

Market Insights 12/10/2023


A bearish session seen yesterday, unwinding much of the previous session, despite comments around the damaged gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, both NATO members, being suggested as deliberate which may attract a determined response if found to be the case.

Whilst investigations are ongoing, it was confirmed that the pipeline would be out of operation for the duration of winter, and not return to service until at least April.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €46.07 (from €49.46) and the NBP Front Month contract at 116.62p (from 124.71p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (306). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.18% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €49 (vs €46 and €51)
Curve NBP Front Month 117p, Front Season 125p (vs 125p and 130p)
UK Gas NBP spot 112p (from 114p)
UK Power DA £110 (from £72)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £108 (£113) and Front Season at £112 (£109).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($88) and EUAs are at €84 (€85). Henry Hub is at $3.38 ($3.38) and JKM is at $14.31 ($14.25) with TTF Equiv of $14.35 ($15.39).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.