Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 October 2023

Market Insights 11/10/2023


A very bullish session yesterday as the pipeline between Finland and Estonia, which reported a leak over the weekend, turned into a potential ‘whodunnit 2’, almost exactly a year after the Nord Stream AG attacks, as speculation mounted this was an intentional attack on energy and communications infrastructure.

It is claimed that a ‘heavy force’ has caused significant damage to the gas pipeline. Whilst it is limited in its physical association to the main European markets, nevertheless they reacted in fear that similar events could occur pushing markets to recent highs that once again caught the mainstream medias attention – just as we head into winter with otherwise healthy fundamentals.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €49.46 (from €43.95) and the NBP Front Month contract at 124.71p (from 109.29p).

Kvitebjorn remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 306mcm from Norway (296). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (36.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.09% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €47, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €47, Front Season €51 (vs €49 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 125p, Front Season 130p (vs 109p and 119p)
UK Gas NBP spot 114p (from 97p)
UK Power DA £72 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £113 (£101) and Front Season at £109 (£106).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $88 ($88) and EUAs are at €85 (€82). Henry Hub is at $3.38 ($3.38) and JKM is at $14.25 ($14.16) with TTF Equiv of $15.39 ($13.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.