Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 October 2023

Market Insights 10/10/2023


The week started with a continuation of the bullish sentiment as nerves remain around several negative factors.

Conflict in Gaza, to which some gas and oil infrastructure is near, has injected some new fear into the markets. This is coupled with the ongoing situation in Australia and some colder weather expected in the coming days which will see temperatures fall below seasonal normal.

In an already nervous market, reaction is always likely to be extreme and yesterdays market saw a significant elevation of some contracts.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.95 (from €36.21) and the NBP Front Month contract at 109.29p (from 89.87p).

Kvitebjorn remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 296mcm from Norway (289). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.6mcm (35.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 97.01% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €46, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €46, Front Season €47 (vs €44 and €44)
Curve NBP Front Month 109p, Front Season 119p (vs 94p and 111p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 87p)
UK Power DA £84 (from £97)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £101 (£90) and Front Season at £106 (£99).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $88 ($85) and EUAs are at €82 (€80). Henry Hub is at $3.38 ($3.34) and JKM is at $14.16 ($14.08) with TTF Equiv of $13.59 ($11.87).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.