Market Insight
Tony Jordan
9 October 2023

Market Insights 09/10/2023


A bullish end to the week as we see risk of further strike action once again in Australia being discussed at Chevron LNG sites.

Markets therefore continuing to hold in its usual range seen of late.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.23 (from €36.21) and the NBP Front Month contract at 94.49p (from 89.87p).

Kvitebjorn and Dvalin on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 289mcm from Norway (280). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.6mcm (37.5) and Sudzha at 40.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 96.87% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €44 (vs €38 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 94p, Front Season 111p (vs 90p and 108p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 70p)
UK Power DA £97 (from £60)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £90 (£87) and Front Season at £99 (£98).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($84) and EUAs are at €80 (€81). Henry Hub is at $3.34 ($3.17) and JKM is at $14.08 ($14.11) with TTF Equiv of $11.87 ($11.18).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.