Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 October 2023

Market Insights 05/10/2023


A slight uptick in yesterdays session, as we once again find ourselves in an envelope of comfort within a price range.

With no real change to push in either direction, markets tend to hold in a range with sessions either holding steady or unwinding a previous days session.

Overall the underlying fundamentals and general outlook remain the same as they have done recently.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.44 (from €36.99) and the NBP Front Month contract at 95.95p (from 92.23p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 284mcm from Norway (264). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 96.33% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €44 (vs €38 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 96p, Front Season 111p (vs 92p and 108p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 77p)
UK Power DA £63 (from £63)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £91 (£89) and Front Season at £96 (£96).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($91) and EUAs are at €82 (€80). Henry Hub is at $2.96 ($2.95) and JKM is at $14.15 ($14.25) with TTF Equiv of $11.86 ($11.35).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.