Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 October 2023

Market Insights 04/10/2023


A continuation of the bearish trend seen in yesterdays session as the fundamentals maintain strength. EU Gas storage tops 96% and continues to grow together with stable Norwegian flows are underpinning confidence for the time being.

Weather-wise, we continue to expect a warm few days to the start of October and then sticking close to the seasonal normal levels for the foreseeable – further giving support to a calm and stable outlook – for now.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.99 (from €39.34) and the NBP Front Month contract at 92.23p (from 98.36p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 264mcm from Norway (269). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 96.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €43 (vs €37 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 92p, Front Season 108p (vs 98p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 80p)
UK Power DA £63 (from £63)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £89 (£93) and Front Season at £96 (£101).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $91 ($91) and EUAs are at €80 (€81). Henry Hub is at $2.95 ($2.84) and JKM is at $14.25 ($14.40) with TTF Equiv of $11.35 ($12.13).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.