Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 October 2023

Market Insights 03/10/2023


Monday saw a bearish start to the week, and October, as everything continues to hold a settled status … for the time being.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at 39.34 (from €41.86) and the NBP Front Month contract at 98.36p (from 105.40p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 269mcm from Norway (277). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (35.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.99% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €45 (vs €39 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 113p (vs 105p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 101p)
UK Power DA £63 (from £94)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £93 (£99) and Front Season at £101 (£102).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $91 ($92) and EUAs are at €81 (€82). Henry Hub is at $2.84 ($2.93) and JKM is at $14.40 ($14.63) with TTF Equiv of $12.13 ($12.99).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.