Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 October 2023

Market Insights 02/10/2023


Welcome along to October, and the start of winter 2023.

Fridays session saw a small decline in price levels as we start to prepare for winter delivery with a healthy gas storage balance, Norwegian fields all appearing now to behave after returning from lengthy planned maintenance and LNG deliveries starting to tick up.

As noted last week, the current market levels are a far cry from where they were this time last year and eyes now focus on the supply/demand mix and of course the weather, which for the current time are both looking good.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €41.86 (from €43.09) and the NBP Front Month contract at 105.40p (from 109.76p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 277mcm from Norway (256). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.6mcm (38.0) and Sudzha at 41.2mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.42% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €46 (vs €42 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 105p, Front Season 118p (vs 110p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 101p (from 100p)
UK Power DA £94 (from £78)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £99 (£87) and Front Season at £102 (£109).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $92 ($95) and EUAs are at €82 (€83). Henry Hub is at $2.93 ($2.95) and JKM is at $14.63 ($14.76) with TTF Equiv of $12.99 ($13.36).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.