Market Insight
Tony Jordan
29 September 2023

Market Insights 29/09/2023


As we reach the end of September, it also sees a change in front month as well as season for most contracts, hence a jump shown between days. However yesterdays market was relatively calm ending much where it started.

As we get back into the winter period, we once again start to have an eye on the weather and in particular the long range temperature forecasts. For the weeks ahead we see a warmer (than seasonal normal) start to October before seasonal normal from mid-October through to early November (the current long term horizon).

This week saw National Grid ESO and National Gas Transmission release their winter outlooks, both suggesting a much more comfortable outlook to that of previous years.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €43.09 (from €39.30) and the NBP Front Month contract at 109.76p (from 99.41p).

Asgard on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 256mcm from Norway (232). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.0mcm (37.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €43, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €43, Front Season €46 (vs €43 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 110p, Front Season 118p (vs 99p and 120p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 104p)
UK Power DA £78 (from £62)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£88) and Front Season at £109 (£108).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $95 ($97) and EUAs are at €83 (€82). Henry Hub is at $2.95 ($2.90) and JKM is at $14.76 ($14.60) with TTF Equiv of $13.36 ($12.12).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.