Market Insight
Tony Jordan
28 September 2023

Market Insights 28/09/2023


A fairly level day in yesterdays session as the market looks to settle the last few days of ‘summer’ trading before entering the winter delivery period.

As we do so, EU gas storage tops 95%, LNG starts to tick up with 6 cargoes to the UK listed in the coming weeks, and Norwegian gas flows returning to strength. It’s certainly a stark contrast to a year ago when the UK gas front month contract was at 3x the current price.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.30 (from €40.32) and the NBP Front Month contract at 99.41p (from 102.23p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 232mcm from Norway (237). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.8mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.19% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €46 (vs €39 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 99p, Front Season 120p (vs 102p and 122p)
UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 98p)
UK Power DA £62 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£88) and Front Season at £108 (£109).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $97 ($94) and EUAs are at €82 (€83). Henry Hub is at $2.90 ($2.66) and JKM is at $14.60 ($14.65) with TTF Equiv of $12.12 ($12.51).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.