Market Insight
Tony Jordan
26 September 2023

Market Insights 26/09/2023


We questioned if it was now over on Friday and it seems not. Statements made in Australia suggest the disagreements continue in relation to Chevron workers and the proposal that was to end the strike action. This once again reignited some nervousness into the markets yesterday.

Not only that, a continuation of issues with Norwegian fields and once again we see Troll listed with a partial outage as it tries to get back to full throttle after a prolonged planned maintenance this summer.

These issues pushed the market higher to start the week off as we edge closer to the start of winter delivery – now just days away.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €44.44 (from €39.79) and the NBP Front Month contract at 112.73p (from 102.16p).

Troll and Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 223mcm from Norway (256). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.96% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €42, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €42, Front Season €50 (vs €44 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 113p, Front Season 130p (vs 102p and 124p)
UK Gas NBP spot 109p (from 103p)
UK Power DA £92 (from £66)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £96 (£92) and Front Season at £115 (£111).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $93 ($93) and EUAs are at €85 (€85). Henry Hub is at $2.64 ($2.64) and JKM is at $14.99 ($14.60) with TTF Equiv of $13.79 ($12.44).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.