Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 September 2023

Market Insights 25/09/2023


A slight uptick to end the week as a return to service on the Norwegian fields showed a few unplanned outages, which were largely present all week with several delays.

This week marks the anniversary of the blasts that damaged the Nord Stream AG pipelines. A year on and we appear no closer to discovering ‘whodunnit’, although Swedish authorities have previously commented they would potentially make some information public ‘in the autumn’ which we are now very close to. In recent days they have re-affirmed this by saying they hope to conclude their investigation before the end of the year.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.79 (from €39.11) and the NBP Front Month contract at 102.16p (from 100.57p).

Sleipner on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 256mcm from Norway (225). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.8mcm (37.4) and Sudzha at 41.8mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.74% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €47 (vs €40 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 102p, Front Season 124p (vs 101p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 103p (from 102p)
UK Power DA £66 (from £89)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £92 (£89) and Front Season at £111 (£108).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $93 ($93) and EUAs are at €85 (€84). Henry Hub is at $2.64 ($2.61) and JKM is at $14.60 ($14.33) with TTF Equiv of $12.44 ($12.22).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.