Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 September 2023

Market Insights 22/09/2023


Is it over now? Chevron workers have accepted a last minute proposal put forward by the arbitrator to avoid a hearing due to be held today – ending the strike action in Australia.

Norwegian flows are increasing as the delayed return of Troll seems to have finally exhausted the excuses and starts to ramp up.

Markets appear to open positively to the above news, but have a bit of distance to unravel in order to get back to the levels we were at before these were topics of the day … oh, and winter contract deliveries start in just a weeks time!

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.11 (from €37.28) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.57p (from 95.37p).

Sleipner on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 225mcm from Norway (204). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.4mcm (37.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.40% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €47 (vs €39 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 101p, Front Season 123p (vs 95p and 121p)
UK Gas NBP spot 102p (from 95p)
UK Power DA £89 (from £83)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £89 (£86) and Front Season at £108 (£110).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $93 ($94) and EUAs are at €84 (€83). Henry Hub is at $2.61 ($2.73) and JKM is at $14.33 ($14.24) with TTF Equiv of $12.22 ($11.71).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.