Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 September 2023

Market Insights 21/09/2023


Yesterday markets held their nerve as no further delays to the return of Troll were announced, and it shows as back online today with capacity increasing over the coming days.

Chevron and the Austrialian union representatives held further talks but were without success. In order to avoid a hearing on Friday, the industrial arbitrator has said it “strongly recommends” the parties accept proposals and has given a deadline of 9am (local time) tomorrow else the hearing, which will be binding, will resolve the matter.

It seems therefore an outcome will be found, whether parties like it or not, and Norwegian fields are now in the process of returning to service. What’s the next news story to rattle the market?

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.28 (from €36.78) and the NBP Front Month contract at 95.37p (from 93.49p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 204mcm from Norway (148). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.4mcm (37.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.34% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €47 (vs €37 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 95p, Front Season 121p (vs 94p and 122p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 102p)
UK Power DA £83 (from £53)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£87) and Front Season at £110 (£111).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $94 ($94) and EUAs are at €83 (€81). Henry Hub is at $2.73 ($2.85) and JKM is at $14.24 ($14.25) with TTF Equiv of $11.71 ($11.52).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.