Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 September 2023

Market Insights 20/09/2023


Yet more delays to the return of Troll announced late yesterday afternoon pushed the market to close up on the day. The market showing some frustration as a result and undoing Mondays losses. We wait on further updates from Gassco AS today as to any further delays to Trolls return.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.78 (from €34.48) and the NBP Front Month contract at 93.49p (from 87.52p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 148mcm from Norway (168). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.4mcm (37.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.24% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €47 (vs €37 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 94p, Front Season 122p (vs 88p and 120p)
UK Gas NBP spot 102p (from 86p)
UK Power DA £53 (from £58)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£82) and Front Season at £111 (£109).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $94 ($94) and EUAs are at €81 (€81). Henry Hub is at $2.85 ($2.73) and JKM is at $14.25 ($13.99) with TTF Equiv of $11.52 ($10.81).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.