Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 September 2023

Market Insights 19/09/2023


A bearish start to the week as the market takes delayed return of the Norwegian fields and impending outcome of the Australian LNG workers dispute in its stride.

The Norwegian fields are expected to return to service imminently but many seem to have some teething issues in their return. Troll was listed yesterday which has been replaced by Oseberg overnight, and the market is barely affected showing there is a strong undertone of confidence in the market dynamics currently.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.48 (from €36.48) and the NBP Front Month contract at 87.52p (from 92.14p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 168mcm from Norway (174). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.4mcm (36.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.5). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €46 (vs €34 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 88p, Front Season 120p (vs 92p and 124p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 98p)
UK Power DA £58 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£85) and Front Season at £109 (£114).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $94 ($94) and EUAs are at €81 (€82). Henry Hub is at $2.73 ($2.64) and JKM is at $13.99 ($14.48) with TTF Equiv of $10.81 ($11.42).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.