Market Insight
Tony Jordan
18 September 2023

Market Insights 18/09/2023


Markets ended slightly higher to end the week as the same news stories continued to show nothing new to report and keep prices rangebound.

This week much of the same is expected as Norwegian fields start to return to service, albeit with Troll being reported as an unexpected outage, but on Friday we may see some progress in the Australian LNG disputes. Before then it is expected strikes will continue in full.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.48 (from €35.52) and the NBP Front Month contract at 92.14p (from 89.27p).

Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 174mcm from Norway (162). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.4mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 41.5mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.41% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €48 (vs €36 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 92p, Front Season 124p (vs 89p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 98p (from 89p)
UK Power DA £81 (from £90)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£85) and Front Season at £114 (£112).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $94 ($94) and EUAs are at €82 (€83). Henry Hub is at $2.64 ($2.71) and JKM is at $14.48 ($13.37) with TTF Equiv of $11.42 ($11.11).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.