Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 September 2023

Market Insights 15/09/2023


Markets continue to maintain a holding envelope whilst strike action continues in Australia at Chevron LNG terminals.

Freeport LNG in the US yesterday cancelled four cargoes as a result of continued issues with feedgas.

Despite the negativity around LNG currently, markets appear to hold out for some positive news once these issues pass and show limited upside.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.52 (from €36.82) and the NBP Front Month contract at 89.27p (from 92.30p).

Aasta Hansteen remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 162mcm from Norway (146). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.86% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €48 (vs €36 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 123p (vs 92p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 89p (from 98p)
UK Power DA £90 (from £89)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£87) and Front Season at £112 (£113).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $94 ($92) and EUAs are at €83 (€83). Henry Hub is at $2.71 ($2.68) and JKM is at $13.37 ($13.39) with TTF Equiv of $11.11 ($11.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.