Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 September 2023

Market Insights 14/09/2023


Escalation begins today at Chevron LNG sites in Australia as workers begin full stoppages, following a week of increased stoppages for selected hourly blocks, as legal interventions are expected in a weeks time.

Norwegian flows remain low as the return of fields on planned maintenance is pushed back yet again causing the market to remain nervous.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.82 (from €34.70) and the NBP Front Month contract at 92.30p (from 86.97p).

Aasta Hansteen remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 146mcm from Norway (145). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.86% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €49 (vs €37 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 92p, Front Season 126p (vs 87p and 122p)
UK Gas NBP spot 98p (from 88p)
UK Power DA £89 (from £89)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£83) and Front Season at £113 (£113).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $92 ($92) and EUAs are at €83 (€81). Henry Hub is at $2.68 ($2.74) and JKM is at $13.39 ($13.39) with TTF Equiv of $11.59 ($10.92).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.