Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 September 2023

Market Insights 12/09/2023


Markets ticked up yesterday as workers at Chevron LNG terminals in Australia increase their daily hours of strike action, ahead of full walk outs from Thursday.

Unions stated they would oppose plans for Chevron to use untested legal processes to bring matters to an end, leaving the outcome to the umpire to decide on a fair deal.

Meanwhile traders were naturally nervous around issues concerning Freeport LNG whereby it is thought two trains have suffered an outage over the weekend. Last year the terminal was on full outage for over six months after a fire resulting in some bullish trading conditions.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.85 (from €34.51) and the NBP Front Month contract at 89.81p (from 84.86p).

The market is likely to watch developments closely, however the impact is not expected to be significant.

Visund and Aasta Hansteen both on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 138mcm from Norway (145). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.2mcm (36.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.5). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.81% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €48 (vs €36 and €47)
Curve NBP Front Month 90p, Front Season 123p (vs 85p and 121p)
UK Gas NBP spot 92p (from 81p)
UK Power DA £96 (from £101)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£83) and Front Season at £113 (£113).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $91 ($91) and EUAs are at €82 (€82). Henry Hub is at $2.61 ($2.61) and JKM is at $13.39 ($13.33) with TTF Equiv of $11.30 ($10.85).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.