Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 September 2023

Market Insights 11/09/2023


Workers at Chevron LNG terminals in Australia began their industrial action on Friday after talks to avert action broke down. Each day, for a set number of hours, workers will refuse to work. However from Thursday they will escalate this to a full walkout.

Meanwhile over the weekend Chevron have announced they plan to use untested legal routes to prevent this from happening as, in their view, talks will not resolve the gap between the parties. Using a ‘intractable bargaining declaration’ would allow the umpire to decide on the final deal and bind both sides to an agreement and end the strikes. Markets are likely to remain nervous until the outcome of this.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.51 (from €32.76) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.86p (from 79.48p).

The market is likely to watch developments closely, however the impact is not expected to be significant.

Visund and Aasta Hansteen both on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 145mcm from Norway (133). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.4mcm (37.2) and Sudzha at 41.5mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.68% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €47 (vs €35 and €46)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 121p (vs 79p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 81p)
UK Power DA £101 (from £90)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£80) and Front Season at £113 (£111).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $91 ($90) and EUAs are at €82 (€83). Henry Hub is at $2.61 ($2.58) and JKM is at $13.33 ($13.32) with TTF Equiv of $10.85 ($10.29).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.