Market Insight
Tony Jordan
8 September 2023

Market Insights 08/09/2023


Talks between Chevron and union workers in Australia were found not to have reached a solution ahead of the delayed industrial action which has now started.

Starting today, and continuing for a week, workers will cease work for a set number of hours each day. They have also said a full walk out will begin on 14th September. This will enhance pressure on further talks to take place.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.76 (from €31.08) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.48p (from 75.31p).

The market is likely to watch developments closely, however the impact is not expected to be significant.

Dvalin and Aasta Hansteen both on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 133mcm from Norway (126). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.2mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.47% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, UP €2 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €46 (vs €33 and €45)
Curve NBP Front Month 79p, Front Season 118p (vs 75p and 117p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 76p)
UK Power DA £90 (from £88)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £80 (£78) and Front Season at £111 (£113).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $90 ($91) and EUAs are at €83 (€84). Henry Hub is at $2.58 ($2.51) and JKM is at $13.32 ($13.21) with TTF Equiv of $10.29 ($9.77).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.