Market Insight
Tony Jordan
7 September 2023

Market Insights 07/09/2023


Markets saw a bearish afternoon session as news relating to the planned action at Chevrons Australian LNG terminals were put back by 24 hours, signalling some progress perhaps being made in talks to avert the action entirely.

Eyes will therefore be on further progress today, and will likely drive direction, with stepped hour increases each day in workers refusing to work over the coming week starting within 24 hours.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.08 (from €34.45) and the NBP Front Month contract at 75.31p (from 83.46p).

Dvalin and Aasta Hansteen both on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 126mcm from Norway (141). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.46% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €45 (vs €31 and €48)
Curve NBP Front Month 75p, Front Season 117p (vs 83p and 123p)
UK Gas NBP spot 76p (from 82p)
UK Power DA £88 (from £86)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £78 (£83) and Front Season at £113 (£110).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $91 ($90) and EUAs are at €84 (€84). Henry Hub is at $2.51 ($2.58) and JKM is at $13.21 ($13.24) with TTF Equiv of $9.77 ($10.84).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.