Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 September 2023

Market Insights 05/09/2023


A bearish start to the week, but the market watches closely as talks between union representatives and Chevron don’t appear to be making positive progress ahead of planned action commencing this Thursday.

Overnight an escalation of extended walkouts from 14th September have been proposed, indicating talks are not going to plan to avert the action.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.57 (from €35.62) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.25p (from 86.76p).

Dvalin and Aasta Hansteen both on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 140mcm from Norway (130). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (36.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.28% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €47 (vs €34 and €49)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 121p (vs 87p and 125p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 90p)
UK Power DA £84 (from £88)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£87) and Front Season at £115 (£119).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $89 ($89) and EUAs are at €84 (€85). Henry Hub is at $2.77 ($2.77) and JKM is at $13.40 ($13.40) with TTF Equiv of $10.63 ($11.28).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.