Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 September 2023

Market Insights 04/09/2023


A calm end to last week with prices holding steady as we prepare for an interesting week ahead.

Across the UK and Europe temperatures are expected to be high whilst talks to avert industrial action, announced to commence on Thursday, at Chevron LNG terminals in Australia are currently underway this morning.

Norwegian flows are currently at their lowest for some time owing to planned maintenance but topped by two unplanned outages this morning. On the plus side, EU gas storage levels hold comfortably at 93%.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.62 (from €35.03) and the NBP Front Month contract at 86.76p (from 85.73p).

Dvalin and Aasta Hansteen both on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 130mcm from Norway (181). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.4mcm (37.7) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.08% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €49 (vs €36 and €51)
Curve NBP Front Month 87p, Front Season 125p (vs 86p and 124p)
UK Gas NBP spot 90p (from 88p)
UK Power DA £88 (from £91)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £87 (£88) and Front Season at £119 (£121).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $89 ($87) and EUAs are at €85 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.77 ($2.77) and JKM is at $13.40 ($13.20) with TTF Equiv of $11.28 ($11.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.