Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 September 2023

Market Insights 01/09/2023


Yesterdays session saw a bearish end to August and we head into the final weeks of the summer delivery in very different circumstances to that of just a year ago.

Overnight Chevron LNG workers in Australia have rejected the offer and will stop work for a number of hours each day commencing 7th September unless an improved offer is tabled and agreed.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.03 (from €39.38) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.73p (from 97.53p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 181mcm from Norway (182). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.7mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.80% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €51 (vs €35 and €51)
Curve NBP Front Month 86p, Front Season 124p (vs 98p and 132p)
UK Gas NBP spot 88p (from 92p).
UK Power DA £91 (from £90).

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£88) and Front Season at £121 (£124).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($86) and EUAs are at €86 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.77 ($2.80) and JKM is at $13.20 ($13.41) with TTF Equiv of $11.14 ($12.63).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.