Market Insight
Tony Jordan
31 August 2023

Market Insights 31/08/2023


Not much newsworthy to note as the September contract came to an end in yesterdays session and October takes its place, therefore adjustments need to be taken into consideration on the below reported moves between trading days.

Markets remained fairly level after playing catch up in Tuesdays session following the Bank Holiday weekend with UK markets closed.

The outcome/progress of any talks between union officials and Chevron to avert limited working hours taking effect on 7th September is still awaited. However the potential impact is much smaller than it was previously with Woodside Energy workers also preparing for industrial action (now resolved) and the market seems to have factored this in.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.38 (from €35.20) and the NBP October contract at 97.53p (from 88.30p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 182mcm from Norway (182). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.70% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €51 (vs €39 and €50)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 132p (vs 88p and 129p)
UK Gas NBP spot 92p (from 90p).
UK Power DA £90 (from £92).

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £88 (£87) and Front Season at £124 (£123).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($85) and EUAs are at €86 (€85). Henry Hub is at $2.80 ($2.66) and JKM is at $13.41 ($13.40) with TTF Equiv of $12.63 ($11.19).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.