Market Insight
Tony Jordan
29 August 2023

Market Insights 29/08/2023


Markets rose again on Friday as it seemed the Chevron workers were less likely than expected to agree to an earlier tabled offer. Over the course of the long UK weekend, dates of reduced working hours have been announced starting on 7th September. Talks continue to avert the proposed action.

European markets were open for trading yesterday and have reflected on the news, whilst UK markets were closed and are likely to adjust today to catch up. Meanwhile Norwegian output is further reduced due to planned maintenance.

Friday saw the TTF September contract settle at €38.41 (from €31.94) and the NBP September contract at 86.65p (from 80.32p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 181mcm from Norway (217). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.53% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €38, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €38, Winter €52 (vs €38 and €47)
Curve NBP September 87p, Winter 126p (vs 80p and 122p)
UK Gas NBP spot 93p (from 79p).
UK Power DA £93 (from £96).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £86 (£82) and Winter at £122 (£118).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €86 (€86). Henry Hub is at $2.58 ($2.52) and JKM is at $13.46 ($12.92) with TTF Equiv of $12.17 ($10.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.