Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 August 2023

Market Insights 25/08/2023


Markets dropped further in yesterdays session as positive news relating to Woodside Energy and union representatives confirmed an in-principle deal made to avoid industrial action. Further comments have suggested workers approve of the deal.

Chevron workers however have approved strike action, whilst negotiations are underway, despite this similar dispute initially showing less chance of industrial action.

For UK domestic consumers, Ofgem have this morning confirmed the new annual price for a typical household using both gas and electricity paying by direct debit taking effect from October. The announced value of £1,923 (down from the current £2,074) is representative of the Q4 wholesale contracts being relatively flat during the calculation window this summer. Consumers should concentrate on the unit rate charges, rather than the headline annual cost, which will be 27.35p/kwh for electricity and 6.89p/kwh for gas (UK average, regional variations will apply). These are down from 30.11p and 7.51p respectively. The daily standing charge has increased slightly for the new period.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €31.94 (from €36.79) and the NBP September contract at 80.32p (from 92.32p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 217mcm from Norway (270). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 91.86% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €32, Winter €47 (vs €32 and €53)
Curve NBP September 80p, Winter 122p (vs 92p and 136p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 88p).
UK Power DA £96 (from £119).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £82 (£91) and Winter at £118 (£132).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($83) and EUAs are at €86 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.52 ($2.50) and JKM is at $12.92 ($13.74) with TTF Equiv of $10.14 ($11.71).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.