Market Insight
Tony Jordan
24 August 2023

Market Insights 24/08/2023


Positive noises coming out of the Australian talks yesterday afternoon gave the market some comfort which saw a bearish session.

Overnight further positive comments have been made that all but confirms avoidance of industrial action to take place, with workers due to ratify the deal agreed between Woodside Energy and union representatives. It was also noted yesterday that Chevron would be making direct offers to its workers to avoid any potential strike

This will see all of the risk premium built into the market in recent sessions removed and get us back to where we were before this potential event.

With EU gas storage levels now comfortably into the 90% range and the removal of a fight for LNG the outlook once again appears comfortable. That said, this last week shows just how nervous the market remains and any news can create a repeat.

Yesterday saw the TTF September contract settle at €36.79 (from €42.91) and the NBP September contract at 92.32p (from 106.10p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 270mcm from Norway (301). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 91.62% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the September TTF contract at €31, DOWN €6 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF September €31, Winter €53 (vs €37 and €57)
Curve NBP September 92p, Winter 136p (vs 106p and 145p)
UK Gas NBP spot 88p (from 106p).
UK Power DA £119 (from £113).

UK power prices show the UK September Baseload contract at £91 (£101) and Winter at £132 (£135).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €88 (€90). Henry Hub is at $2.50 ($2.56) and JKM is at $13.74 ($14.30) with TTF Equiv of $11.71 ($13.65).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.